We are less than 24 hours away that hosts Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone announcing the nominees for the 85th Academy Awards in Los Angeles tomorrow morning. After last year’s strange surprises and this recent shifting of nominee numbers over the last few years, the show is getting to be a strange bubble to pop. Last year’s “Really?!” nominee was Stephen Daldry’s lukewarm received Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, whose only other nomination was Best Supporting Actor for Max Von Sydow. I attribute the decision to two factors. One is AMPAS’ necessity to throw an emotionally hopeful film into the mix cluttered with themes of death and loss and the nature of human beings’ answer to find hope and happiness out of a grim situation. Two is the seemingly large amount of love the Academy has for Daldry, thus even if they don’t particularly nominate him as a director, they nominate his film. My proof stands in the success rate for his films either being nominated for BP or he gets nominated as a director. In 2000, he was the standalone directing nominee for Billy Elliott, and The Hours and The Reader both earned Best Picture nominations as well as Daldry being nominated for director. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was that one case where Daldry’s film surprisingly snuck in with a nod, yet the director was excluded on nomination morning. Moral of story… Never underestimate the power of AMPAS’ love for particular actors and filmmakers. Clint Eastwood did not make any films this year, so we know AMPAS will not be substituting a particular contender to make room for his film. So, what will? I have pretty much come to a proper conclusion as to what will be and what will not be on the nominees list tomorrow morning. Let’s go ahead and break down each category.
BEST PICTURE
“ARGO”
“LINCOLN”
“ZERO DARK THIRTY”
“SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
“LIFE OF PI”
“BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD”
“MOONRISE KINGDOM”
“LES MISERABLES”
“THE MASTER”
Category Breakdown: I am saying they will nominate nine films tomorrow morning. Lincoln, Argo, ZD30, and Silver Linings are locked. Life of Pi’s technical majesty and groundbreaking techniques in both the use of visual effects to tell the story and 3D technology deems it worthy for a place on this list. It will simply flourish in the visual department if it wins anything, but a nomination on the big list is the reward AMPAS will throw the film tomorrow. On every list, every year, there has to be a small film that could. Beasts is that films this year. It has charmed critics, audiences and particular precursors (despite the fact that it has been ineligible for a few of them) and has stood tall since its release this past summer. Moonrise makes my final cut for a few reasons, out of every film Wes Anderson has made, this one has gotten the most attention from the powers that be. Its threat is that Beasts is fighting for the same spot, and if AMPAS goes one nominee less than nine or decides to throw in a big surprise, I would say Anderson’s film gets the chopping block. Les Mis does not really need much of an explanation as to why it will be there. AMPAS loves to nominate the good musicals and they definitely made it known how much they love Tom Hooper two years ago when they arrogantly robbed David Fincher of such a deserved Oscar. So, why is The Master on this list overall? I think its also a list hopeful. This means that it is also at a major risk form losing its place if and honestly I think “when” AMPAS starts making tricky decisions. I would say Moonrise and Master are the two most likely films to be knocked off this list. If AMPAS sticks with seven nominees, then nothing will replace it, but if they go for nine, then I could clearly see those films being replaced with any one of the following surprise nominees… Django Unchained, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel or The Impossible. Three other potential films to spoil another film’s hopes are Amour (Foreign hits make for big threats), Flight (Never underestimate the Academy’s love for Denzel or their possible desire to reward Zemeckis for his long-awaited return to live action) or Skyfall (Its been a huge year for Bond, and I am pretty sure its gonna be the most nominated Bond film of all time. With the Bond tribute happening, could they go ahead and give Skyfall the honor of being the first Bond film nominated for Best Picture?).
BEST DIRECTOR
BEN AFFLECK, Argo
STEVEN SPIELBERG, Lincoln
KATHRYN BIGELOW, Zero Dark Thirty
ANG LEE, Life of Pi
DAVID O. RUSSELL, Silver Linings Playbook
Category Breakdown: Affleck, Spielberg, Bigelow and Lee are locked. For the fifth spot, it pretty much remains a tight fight between Russell and Tom Hooper for Les Mis. Why am I going with Russell? Because I firmly believe he deserves the nomination. After seeing Silver Linings last night, his directing job has me sold on his worthiness of getting a nod on the directors’ list. I just hope AMPAS sees this as well.
BEST ACTOR
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, Lincoln
BRADLEY COOPER, Silver Linings Playbook
DENZEL WASHINGTON, Flight
JOAQUIN PHOENIX, The Master
HUGH JACKMAN, Les Miserables
Category Breakdown: Between these five, I would say this category is pretty much locked down. If anyone is gonna get replaced, I would put my bets on Phoenix first, then Washington. AMPAS loves Washington and his performance has garnered much attention, so I would say he has the biggest chance of holding on, while Phoenix has tended to lose and gain edge as the season has progressed. If either of these two main are gonna be replaced on the list, their biggest competition will be John Hawkes for The Sessions, Richard Gere for Arbitrage and Jean-Louis Trintignant for Amour. I see Amour having its moment of glory in the Foreign Language Film category. Gere has a chance in that the Academy has a liking for him and Hawkes is AMPAS’ current indie man. For the most part though, we can consider this category locked and loaded.
BEST ACTRESS
JESSICA CHASTAIN, Zero Dark Thirty
JENNIFER LAWRENCE, Silver Linings Playbook
NAOMI WATTS, The Impossible
EMMANUELLE RIVA, Amour
QUVENZHANE WALLIS, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Category Breakdown: If Chastain or Lawrence get snubbed, it will be a shocker. The probability of that happening is very, very unlikely. Watts seems a sure fire bet and I am choosing Riva because her performance in Amour has been the most praised in the film and since I am convinced it won’t make the BP cut, it will be given a nomination reward here. For the last slot, I am going with Wallis, whose work in Beasts was just a marvel of talent. She carried the film wonderfully at such a young age and AMPAS loves nominating youngsters in breakthrough roles. I also feel that it may be a while before we see Wallis acting on screen again since she is so young and needing the proper time to attend school and joy the perks of being a kid before getting into the world of Hollywood acting. Her future is a bright one, no doubt. If any actresses are gonna sneak in on this one, I’d say Judi Dench and Marion Cotillard. They are Academy darlings who would seem logical choices based on their mentality of fandom for the ac-tors.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
TOMMY LEE JONES, Lincoln
ROBERT DE NIRO, Silver Linings Playbook
ALAN ARKIN, Argo
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, The Master
LEONARDI DiCAPRIO, Django Unchained
Category Breakdown: Pretty much an easy category to break down. I would say all five of these men are pretty much locked with the exception of DiCaprio, who could find himself with a duel against Matthew McConaughey. As a matter of fact, I am putting my bets that he’ll sneak in. I just wrote in DiCaprio because his buzz is a safer bet, but I will not deny that McConaughey is due for a nod.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
ANNE HATHAWAY, Les Miserables
SALLY FIELD, Lincoln
ANN DOWD, Compliance
HELEN HUNT, The Sessions
JACKI WEAVER, Silver Linings Playbook
Category Breakdown: Maggie Smith has not campaigned for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, but I see it as a duel between her and Jacki Weaver for that last spot. I am gonna go with Weaver because of all the acting love Silver Linings has received. The other four, I am quite sure are locks.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, MOONRISE KINGDOM
Paul Thomas Anderson, THE MASTER
Rian Johnson, LOOPER
Quentin Tarantino, DJANGO UNCHAINED
Category Breakdown: Boal is pretty much the locked man here. The Andersons seem likely and Johnson has had a good campaign, which should allow his film at least just one nomination. I am going with Tarantino over The Intouchables guys for the sake of AMPAs trying to reward Django as much as possible without throwing it as many nods without having to dip into director or picture. Surprise nominees could be Flight or Arbitrage.
This is for the most part, how I see the big categories turning out. There is not too much to contemplate for the technical and artistic categories, so I will stick to breaking those down when the time comes to predict the winner. Let’s see how much I’ve guesses. The nominees will announced tomorrow morning at 5:30 am Pacific time.
-ADAM KEITH.
